It wasn’t supposed to be this way. This years’ version of the Memphis Tigers were supposed to be good, not great. Their defense was supposed to be suspect after losing Joey Dorsey, not a potential top-10 all-time defense. They were supposed to be soft, not a gritty-no-holds-barred-not-rattled-for-anything team.
At the start of the season, Notre Dame and Georgetown were expected to make up a record-setting group of 10 Big East representatives in the NCAA tournament. Looking at the landscape of the Big East today, seven teams should realistically get into the tournament. Whoops! Tennessee was supposed to top the SEC. Whoops! Memphis was supposed to lose a conference game and be challenged by UAB and/or Tulsa for the championship. Whoops!
Memphis, which lost in last season’s NCAA championship game, had no chance to get back to the Final Four because the Tigers lost Derrick Rose, among others, to the NBA. According to Luke Winn in his ‘Fearless predictions for the 2008-2009 NCAA hoops season’, “Super-recruit Tyreke Evans isn’t going to fit as perfectly into Memphis’ offense as Derrick Rose did. That doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t win Conference USA … it just means that Evans is likely to be far more interested in creating his own shots than Rose was.”
In no way, shape or form was this University of Memphis men’s basketball team expected to have the same dominance as the prior three years. According to a recent poll on MemphisTigers.org, this Memphis team exceeded expectations of about 90% of the fanbase.
What’s great about this team, though, is that they didn’t settle for predictions of being ‘good’. Michael Jordan once said, “If you accept the expectations of others, especially negative ones, then you never will change the outcome.” This team, from the beginning, has thrown expectations out the window. They have, in the words of Calipari, formed their own identity and owned their performance.
As attention is now turned to post-season play, the predictions and prognostication start all over again. It’s a ‘new season’. With C-USA Tournament play starting for the Tigers on Thursday, what kind of expectations will fans, experts and the nay-sayers have for this team?
Some are already saying that it is possible for Memphis to lose in the Conference USA tournament. Most pundits say that Memphis is not a legitimate Final Four contender despite being ranked in the top 5 in both polls and being rated as the #1 overall team according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Most fans would say that they’d be happy with a Sweet Sixteen or an Elite Eight.
After this regular season, the average fan expectations should be tossed out the window as well. Do it. It’s liberating. If anything can be learned from watching the Tigers the last three years, it’s to expect the unexpected. Expect more than what you bargained for.
Disappointment is when your expectations do match up with real results. Let the negative people set this team’s expectations low, only to be disappointed. Throw yours out the window while driving down Union Avenue on Thursday and let the team set them for you. Based on past performance, they won’t disappoint.
“Don’t bunt. Aim out of the ball park. Aim for the company of immortals.” - David Ogilvy
- Observations from the data below:
This team’s defensive abilities are well charted, but what really stands out in the chart below is that this team has become extremely consistent with their level of offensive efficiency. Since the games between December 17th and January 7th, this team’s efficiency has not dipped below the 105.0 Efficiency Marker. That is a very good sign going ahead knowing that this team comes to play defense every night and that the offense is following suit.
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