That magical 2003 season, as many have come to remember it, was not without its ups and downs. Many remember the Louisville victory, the Cincinnati win, and of course the bowl victory over North Texas. What many people might forget is that the Tigers lost their homecoming game that season. In fact, they lost it badly to UAB 24-10. The following week we would lose again to Mississippi State. Then the Tigers turned things around quickly against Houston, in Houston. Riding a two game losing streak, the Tigers went into Houston and defeated the Cougars 45-14, who where 5-1 at the time. Memphis went on to win 6 of their last 7 games and finish at 9-4. Houston, on the other hand, finished at 7-5 losing their last 4 in a row.
Why is this relevent? Danny Wimprine, Deangelo Williams, and Maurice Avery aren’t playing for Memphis on Saturday, right? Well, here’s what is relevent. Memphis, like that 2003 team, has not played up to its potential all year and is due to break out. Hoping for a serious case of deja vu, this Tiger team hopes to find some of its footing against the 24th ranked Cougars, while finishing strong. With a large group of seniors and very little to lose, expect a hungry group of Tigers to show up in Houston looking for some redemption for a season gone wrong.
Unfortunatley, this would be bucking a serious trend for the Tigers against a top-25 rated opponent. The Tigers have not won on the road all season and haven’t defeated a C-USA team on the road since last season’s win at SMU.
Fun Fact
Since Houston joined C-USA, the road teams in this series are 5-1. The only home win was by Memphis in 2004, a 41-14 Memphis homecoming victory. Overall, the series stands at a 4-2 (Memphis advatage).
Homecoming
Memphis senior TE DajLeon Farr will be making a homecoming of sorts as the Houston native returns home for the first time in his college career. The transfer from Miami will be playing his first game in front of friends and family since his senior year of high school.
Last Meeting
On a cold pre-Thanksgiving Saturday, Kevin Kolb led the high scoring Houston Cougars into the Liberty Bowl to face a 1-9 Tiger team, who was on an 8 game losing streak at the time, for the Tigers’ final home game of the 2006 season. The heavily favored Cougars soon learned that this would not be the easy game Vegas said it would be, as the Tigers’ much meligned defense sacked Kolb six times and intercpeted him twice. As the Cougars attempted to salt the game away with a late field goal, Brandon McDonald blocked the kick and Greg Jackson picked up the ball rumbling 80 yards for the game tying score. A missed field goal by freshman Matt Regan in overtime allowed Houston to escape with a 23-20 victory in white knuckle fashion. This game led to the next week’s 39-19 dismantling of UTEP. Many will tell you that this game was the turning point for the resurgence the Tigers showed the next two seasons, leading to two more bowl appearances.
Preview
Memphis’ offense has been very consistent since Will Hudgens took control. Say what you want about the record, but the offense has definitely been up to par, putting up at least 21 points in the last two contests. Unfortunately, the Tigers have been consistent in a negative area while on offense- turnovers. Turnovers have been a serious problem. Last week, three fumbles inside the UAB 20 cost the Tigers dearly. Additionally, the usually stong Tiger offensive line gave up four sacks against the Blazers, forcing the Tigers’ passing game to look for shorter routes. The line must give Hudgens more time against the Cougars if the Tigers are going to pull the upset.
Once again, the Tigers are led by 6th year senior quarterback Will Hudgens and senior Juco transfer running back Curtis Steele. Steele’s 107 yards on 20 carries and 2 touchdowns was the highlight of the Tigers offense against the Blazers last weekend, and helped him continue his march towards 1,000 yards for the second straight season. If Steele reaches the 1,000 yard plateau, he will become only the 2nd Tiger running back to reach 1,000 yards twice in a career. Steele currently sits at 888 yards with 9 touchdowns despite missing parts of three games due to a knee injury suffered against MTSU in the second game of the season. After his efforts against UAB, Steele currently sits at 7th on the Memphis all-time rushing charts. In a bit of irony, Steele needs 125 yards to surpass the no. 6 all-time rushing leader, and current candidate to replace Tommy West, former Tiger great Larry Porter.
Since Hudgens took over during the UCF game, the Tigers passing attack has settled into one of the best in the conference. With only 5 starts, Hudgens leads the team with 1,484 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s averaging over 260 yards passing in his 5 starts, and has led the Tigers to their only victory over a Division 1 opponent. Last week, Hudgens was 26-41 for 333 yards. He also rushed for 23 yards on 7 attempts. His two fumbles were the only lowlight, but he has been the calming touch the Tigers needed following their slow offensive start.
Last Saturday, the inevitable finally occured as Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton both officially became the number one and 2 receivers in the history of the program, respectively. Both worked over the Blazer’s secondary to combine for over 150 yards recieving. For the season, Duke currently leads the team with 59 receptions for 881 yards and 5 touchdowns. On his current pace of over 88 yards per contest, Calhoun will break former Tiger and future NFL hall of famer Isaac Bruce’s single-season receiving record of 1,054 yards set in 1993. Calhoun also holds the top spot in receptions with 203 and yardage with 2,939. Singleton, following a slow start, has rebounded to be second on the team with 486 yards and 3 touchdowns. Singleton is currently the career touchdown recpetions leader with 22, but is being pushed hard by his teammate Calhoun. Regardless how this ends, statistically speaking, Calhoun and Singleton will be the greatest receiving tandem in the history of the program. Both will be widely considered among the best wide receivers to ever wear a Tiger uniform.
Houston’s quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate, Case Keenum, has been nothing short of phenominal all year. Overall, Art Briles’ offense ranks first in the conference in scoring, total offense, and passing offense. Basically every significant catagory. Keenum, for his part, leads the conference in yardage with 4,194, completions with 358 (almost twice as many as anyone else), touchdowns with 31 (see previous comment), and an other-worldly passer rating of 155.8. In fact, he has only thrown for less than 300 yards once all season, has crossed the 400 yard plateau twice, and has thrown for over 500 yards THREE times. Considering Houston has played and beaten SEC member Mississippi State (in Starkville) and Big 12 member Texas Tech, these numbers are nothing less than staggering. Even Will Rogers wouldn’t have a problem with these statistics, because they’re not lying. The Memphis defensive backs better strap it on tight Saturday, otherwise they’ll be chasing down a lot of Cougars. The bottom line here is that Case Keenum will arguably be the best quarterback the Tigers have faced since the Manning boys in the late 90’s and early 2000’s.
Anytime a quarterback has the numbers Keenum does, he’s got some wide receivers catching passes. Houston is blessed with a receiving core that will surely test the Tigers on Saturday. While Calhoun and Singleton may have the better career numbers, the Cougars have 3 of the top 5 in the conference in receptions and each of them already have amassed over 800 yards receiving. James Cleveland currently leads the conference in every significant receiving catagory with 82 receptions for 942 yards and 11 touchdowns, but before you double cover him you better make sure you’ve got Tyrone Carrier (67, 801, 6), Patrick Edwards (66, 800, 3) and Charles Sims (48, 522, 1) covered. These guys have been an absolute nightmare for defensive backfields all year and have been keeping defensive coordinators up late trying to figure out how to slow them down.
With all that passing, Houston’s rushing offense ranks 7th in the conference, which is only 1 spot behind the Tigers. They are paced by Bryce Bell who has 598 yards and 6 touchdowns. The change of pace and 3rd down back Charles Sims has added 443 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground to go along with his receiving stats. Don’t get fooled into thinking that this is a one dimensional team, because these guys can hurt you on the ground as well.
In the midst of the mind boggling passing stats Houston has posted this season, perhaps the most amazing is that in 514 passing attempts, Keenum has only be sacked 14 times. That’s less than 1 sack every 36 passing attempts. No pressure plus a great quarterback and great wide receivers equals big time numbers. If the Tigers are to slow down Houston, we must replicate the pressure placed on Kevin Kolb in 2006.
While the Tigers offense has settled into consistency, the defense has not. In fact, following three decent performances against UCF, UTEP, and Southern Miss the Tigers defensive unit has regressed. This is fairly surprising given the fact that their linebacking corp has been returning to health in that time. Currently the Tigers rank 9th in the conference in scoring defense (Yikes!), a number which looks to drop following this weeks tilt with Houston. Actually the Tigers defensive numbers have been bascially stagnant for the last 3 games. In each they have given up at least 30 points and over 200 yards rushing. To be fair one of those games was against Tennessee in Knoxville, but the defensive effort against ECU and UAB are almost mirror images of each other.
Statiscally, the matchup does not favor the Tigers as they currently rank 8th in passing defense giving up over 250 yds/game and 8th in rushing defense at 183 yds/game. Overall the Tigers are paced by DeAnte’ Lamar, Winston Bowens, and Greg Jackson who lead in tackles. Marcus Ball leads the team in interceptions, while Josh Weaver leads the team in sacks.
Now for some good news. As great has Houston’s offense has been statistically, their defense has been BAD. Some of this may be due to the quick-strike nature of the offense, however inexplicable losses to UTEP and UCF exposed a weak defense that has been unable to stop the run. Currently Houston’s defensive unit ranks 7th in scoring, 5th in passing, and dead last in rushing defense. Somebody had better give Curtis Steele a some extra fluids before the game Saturday. He should find plenty of holes to run through. This could be a critical point to keeping Houston’s high powered offense off the field. Teams like UTEP and UCF, and even Tulsa to some extent have found ways to control the clock against Houston. Obviously Houston’s offensive stats say that those are the exception and not the rule, but Memphis must take advantage of Houston’s run defense if they are to have a chance.
Linebacker number 55 Marcus McGraw leads the Cougars defensive efforts with 53 tackles including 7 for a loss, while DE/OLB number 44 Tyrell Graham leads the team in sacks with 6. The defensive backfield is led by safety (32) Jamal Robinson and corner back (21) Brandon Brinkley who each have 3 interceptions.
Memphis’ special teams have been a weak spot all year. This is born out by the fact that the Tigers are in the top half of the conference in only 1 catagory. Matt Reagan, as a punter, has been nothing short of a revelation. He leads the conference in punt average (45.4 yds/kick) and putting 20 inside the opponents 20 yard line. Again, simply amazing for a guy who hadn’t punted in 3 years. Unfortunately that’s really the end of the good news. Reagan’s field goal numbers have improved slightly, but he still ranks outside the top 10 connecting only 10 of 15 for a 66.7% clip. He is a machine in PAT’s connecting on 26 of 27 however. As for return coverage the Tigers continue to struggle ranking only 8th in kickoff coverage allowing almost 23 yards per return. The good news here is that Paulo Henriques has been finding the endzone more frequently with his kickoffs acquring 4 total touchbacks for the season. However, returns have been a real sore spot for the Tigers all year. In addition to leading the conference in fumbled punt returns, they are dead last in punt return yardage at only 2.8 yds/return. Kick off returns haven’t been much better ranking 10th overall at 20.6 yards/return. This leaves you with a long field, and less chance of reaching the end zone.
Houston’s special teams haven’t been much better. Punter Chase Turner ranks 6th overall with a 42.6 yard average. On the other hand Freshman Matt Hogan has taken over the kicking duties and has connected on all 9 attempts including a 51 yarder. He’s also made 18 of his 19 PAT attempts. Houston’s kickoff coverage currently ranks 6th, allowing a shade under 18 yards/return. Their punt return and punt coverage teams both rank 8th overall in the conference. However, neither seem significant because the number of punts and punt returns are very low compared to the rest of the conference (see the part about Houston’s offense above for an explaination).
Intagibles
Turnover margin is always a huge factor in any game, but especially one that is dominated by the offenses. When the only way one team will stop the other is a turnover, this statistic can be paramount. Currently Memphis ranks 10th in the conference at -9, while Houston is tied for 2nd at +8. If this statistic holds up, don’t look for any upsets.
Prediction
The Tigers will get their 2nd shot at a ranked opponent Saturday. A win would be the first against a ranked opponent since Eli Manning and the Rebels left the Liberty Bowl with a 10 point loss. Currently Vegas has the 24th ranked Cougars as a 23.5 point favorite. Honestly I don’t think I can disagree. Unless Memphis wins the turnover battle, puts pressure on Keenum, and can run the ball consistently this looks to be a real tough game to pull out. Frankly the Tigers haven’t put together a complete effort since the UTEP game. It will take an effort far superior to that one to win Saturday.
Have something to say? Talk about it on our message board!
Not a member? No problem. It's easy and FREE to sign-up here. Already a member? Join the conversation!